Originally from the Journal of Damages in International Arbitration

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How Could Changes in U.S. Trade Policies Affect the Application of Different Valuation Methodologies?—Some Thoughts on Damages Assessments 

Currently, U.S. tariff policies are subject to frequent changes. Only considering the year 2025, significant changes related to U.S. tariffs were made, as summarized in Figure 1, below: 

Figure 1: Selected events related to U.S. tariffs and trade deals in 20252 

As evident from this summary, the tariff structures in the U.S. are continuously undergoing modifications, resulting in a dynamic trade environment that is difficult to predict. 

I. The Increase in Uncertainty and Volatility 

From an economic point of view, frequent and unpredictable changes in trade policies result in a higher level of uncertainty and, thus, a higher risk. Since “risk in finance is defined in terms of variability of actual returns on investment around an expected return, even when those returns represent positive outcomes,”3 the current market environment requires consideration in both valuations and damages assessments.